#1 - Initial NFL Picks:
As early in the week as possible, make a list of the
coming games and make your selections. Go with your
best guess, gut feeling, or whatever. Skip the games
about which you are unsure. In making NFL picks, whether
you are an expert or someone who just likes to watch
a game now and then, your first decision is often
best.
#2 - The Undecideds:
Go back and mark those NFL picks you are not sure
about with a question mark. With fewer decisions remaining,
the focus on these games is increased.
#3 - Pondering:
Tuck your list into a convenient pocket and carry
it with you. Look it over several times a day. A minute
or two twice a day is far more helpful than an hour
of study.
#4 - Gather Information:
Read newspapers. If you come to know a given sports
writer, you will be able to pick up on the difference
between his facts and opinions, and on any bias present.
And some publish their NFL picks. There are some shows
on TV that may help. Your best bet may be the web.
Sites such as CNN, CBS, and Nando.Net are very informative.
What others have to say is particularly helpful in
thinking about teams you do not follow or do not know
much about.
#5 - Argue:
Get into it about your undecided picks with a friend,
or anyone interested. Or argue with yourself! "The
Bears will stomp Detroit." "No they won't.
Here's why." "How come I can't make a simple
decision like this?" While this may seem an odd
or novel idea, it is a real winner. It dramatically
increases the focus on the undecided games. And the
greater the focus, the more likely your final pick
will be the right one.
#6- The Line:
If it drops, then heavy bucks have been placed on
the underdog. If it goes up, those bucks are going
to the favorite. While public opinion may mean little
in many cases, this part of the public is backing
their opinion with dollars. If in doubt, you may want
to go along.
#7 - Decisions:
Make decisions as possible. Every undecided you cross
off the list leaves one less pick to think about and
increases the focus on those remaining. As the list
gets shorter, you can run down it mentally without
even looking at it.
#8 - Avoid Changes:
Be hesitant to change any decision already made; more
often than not it will be a loser. This seems particularly
true in making NFL picks.
#9 - Put It Off:
Make final decisions on the remaining undecided picks
as late in the week as possible. The greater the time
between your initial consideration and final decision,
the greater the focus, and the better the pick. A
Note: There are lots of explanations as to why the
idea of increasing focus works. Many great minds have
considered unconscious thinking, instinct, intuition,
and related concepts. And many have done so at considerable
length. While not all agree about how it works, most
agree that anything that brings a greater focus on
a decision, increases the chance the final choice
will be the best available.
